Objective
The objective of the study was to develop a statistical model for predicting risk
of preterm delivery after in utero transfer for threatened preterm delivery in tertiary
care centers.
Study Design
This study was an observational study including a total of 906 patients transferred
for threatened preterm delivery at Paule-de-Viguier and Croix-Rousse University Hospitals.
Clinical and sonographic data from 1 series were used to construct logistic regression
models for predicting preterm delivery and were validated on an independent series.
An Internet-based tool was developed to facilitate the use of the nomograms.
Results
Based on multivariate analyses, 2 nomograms were built: 1 to predict delivery within
48 hours after transfer and 1 to predict delivery before 32 weeks. Discrimination
and calibration of the predictive models were good when applied to the validation
set (concordance index 0.73 and 0.72, respectively).
Conclusion
We developed and validated nomograms to predict the individual probability of preterm
birth after transfer for threatened preterm delivery.
Key words
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: November 22, 2010
Accepted:
September 28,
2010
Received in revised form:
August 18,
2010
Received:
April 25,
2010
Footnotes
The last 2 authors contributed equally to the study and article.
Cite this article as: Allouche M, Huissoud C, Guyard-Boileau B, et al. Development and validation of nomograms for predicting preterm delivery. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2011;204:242.e1-8.
Identification
Copyright
© 2011 Mosby, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
